Claudia Sheinbaum is in a bind, with her party accused of corruption
How she deals with America’s indictment of Morena officials could define her presidency
Claudia Sheinbaum’s efforts to improve security in Mexico have long had an obvious weakness: her reluctance to pursue high-level officials in Morena, her ruling party, who may be co-operating with narcos. Now the United States has forced the issue, presenting her with a choice that will shape her presidency and relations with Mexico’s northern neighbour.
On April 29th the United States Department of Justice published an indictment charging ten Morena-linked officials, three of them party politicians, with conspiring with the Sinaloa Cartel to traffic drugs into the United States. Among the Morena politicians was Rubén Rocha Moya, the governor of Sinaloa, who has since stepped down. The charges allege years of collusion, including taking bribes and electoral support from gangsters in exchange for impunity.
Donald Trump has been pushing Mexico to do more to tackle its criminal groups, including pointing to an “intolerable nexus” with politicians. Few are surprised by the charges. Credible allegations about Mr Rocha Moya have circulated for years. Reports suggested the Sinaloa Cartel helped him win his office in 2021. Rival candidates were kidnapped and threatened, ballot boxes stolen. Mr Rocha Moya and many others deny the charges.
Corruption is the unfortunate norm in Mexican politics, says Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, an opposition senator from the Citizens’ Movement party. “But the ruling party takes it to another level.” César Prieto, the Morena mayor of Salamanca, a city in central Mexico, says corruption exists in all parties, including his own, but that Mexicans should rest assured that justice will be done.
The gangs’ success is part of the problem. As they grew richer and better armed they could more easily encourage, or force, officials to work with them. But Morena has made it easier to be corrupt. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Ms Sheinbaum’s predecessor, took a hands-off approach to crime while weakening or removing many of the checks that once constrained power, including moving to an elected judiciary. Mr Rocha Moya is just one of several Morena bigwigs suspected of links to gangs.
People close to Ms Sheinbaum argue that she has acted: arresting local officials, extraditing gangsters to the United States and dismantling drug labs. They also say the Americans underestimate her constraints. Morena is a loose coalition, still heavily shaped by Mr López Obrador, whose allies include governors accused of links to organised crime. Moving against them could fracture the party.
Her critics say caution is an excuse for inaction. Morena did not have to rally around Mr Rocha Moya as enthusiastically as it has. Some suspect the party fears what might come out if corruption were taken more seriously. “There will be a domino effect that will reach the highest levels of power,” predicts Paola Gárate, a lawmaker in Sinaloa’s state congress for the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party.
The indictment could provide Ms Sheinbaum with cover to take on previously untouchable figures. The arrest of senior members of the Sinaloa Cartel—including co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada—by the FBI in 2024 is thought to have given prosecutors chunky evidence of corruption. But Ms Sheinbaum’s government says that it has seen nothing which supports the recent charges.
Charging or extraditing Mr Rocha Moya could provoke a backlash in the party. But freeing him could worsen relations with the United States. Risks abound. The United States, Mexico and Canada must soon decide whether to renew their free-trade accord beyond 2036, its current end date. The United States may well bring more cases against Mexican officials. Mr Trump has even weighed unilateral military action against Mexico’s gangs.
So far Ms Sheinbaum has responded by questioning the charges and accusing the United States of trampling on Mexico’s sovereignty. But some suspect she quietly forced Mr Rocha Moya to go. The involvement of the United States makes it harder for her to handle public opinion. Many Mexicans back action against corrupt officials, but dislike American interference.
Corruption has long been tolerated in Mexico. Change has come only when people realise there is a cost, says Oliver Meza of Tecnológico de Monterrey, a university. During the presidency of Enrique Peña Nieto from 2012 to 2018, several governors were jailed as public anger rose over blatant abuses. Morena came to power in 2018 promising to do away with corruption.
This time Sinaloense may provide the impetus for change. Violence in the state has been surging. Thousands have been killed in recent months, or have disappeared. If voters begin to link their insecurity with political collusion, Ms Sheinbaum’s hand may be forced. ■