Voters say they want young candidates. In practice, they do not

The Massachusetts Senate primary offers a case study

For those Democrats still recovering from the 2024 election, the Massachusetts Democratic primary is a jumpscare. Ed Markey, who has spent half a century in Congress, will be 86 by the end of his next term if he is re-elected. Mr Markey’s primary challenger, Seth Moulton, meanwhile, credits four tours of duty in the Iraq war as his motivation. The 47-year-old has made age the defining contrast between them. “With everything we learned last election,” he says in an advertisement, “I just don’t believe Senator Markey should be running for another six-year term at 80 years old.” Mr Markey is not alone in his tenacity. Just one-third of the 24 octogenarians up for re-election this year have announced their plans to retire from office (see chart).

The race between Messrs Moulton and Markey offers a clear case study of the gap between voters’ stated and revealed preferences. In survey after survey Americans say they want a new generation of leaders. Yet in practice they make exceptions, weighing age against other factors and deciding it matters less than they claim. Voters seem admirably untarnished by ageism. In the most recent polls Mr Markey leads Mr Moulton by a comfortable 16 points.

One explanation is path-dependent: voters are often not offered the alternative they might have preferred. Mr Markey’s most compelling potential rival, Ayanna Pressley, a 52-year-old congresswoman whose position on the left of the party would play well in a primary, never mounted a challenge. Polling suggested she would have been competitive. But Mr Markey consolidated support across the party early on, securing endorsements from Elizabeth Warren (aged 76), his fellow Massachusetts senator, and various trade unions. Older incumbents make formidable opponents because they have deeper pockets and more establishment support. Ultimately, Ms Pressley announced she would seek re-election in the House instead.

Mr Moulton, a Democrat with progressive views on economic policy but more moderate positions on social issues, has alienated parts of the coalition in the state. In 2024 he told the New York Times he doesn’t want his two daughters “getting run over on the playing field by a male or formerly male athlete”. Massachusetts’ Democratic powerbrokers criticised the remarks and Mr Moulton’s campaign manager resigned. That view, which reflects mainstream opinion, created a difficult path in a primary where to “become well-known and well-liked with young progressives in Massachusetts is the whole ball game”, explains Mary Anne Marsh, a veteran Democratic strategist. No Republican candidate for president has won a single Massachusetts county in 38 years.

But the other half of the explanation lies with voters themselves. “Voters’ statement that they want younger candidates is, to some extent, symbolic,” notes John Sides, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University. In a recent YouGov/The Economist survey, 46% of respondents said it is better to nominate a younger candidate. Yet when asked how they would vote in a primary between two candidates they liked equally, just 10% said they would choose the less experienced one, who is in practice likely to be younger. Data from real elections bear this out. In 2024 voters re-elected 95% of incumbents across federal, state and local offices.

Even younger Americans don’t feel as one might expect. In the same survey just 29% of those aged 18-29 said they would choose a younger, less experienced candidate over an older, more experienced one. A similar share of those aged 65 years and older said the same. Young Democrats were far more likely to favour youth than their Republican and independent peers, but there is still hardly a consensus. Roughly half of Democrats aged 18 to 29 either expressed no preference or favoured experience over youth.

“Age can be a primary concern for voters,” says David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, “if they really see any evidence that the incumbent…has lost so many steps that they’re no longer able to do the work.” In Mr Markey’s case, he adds, “we haven’t seen that yet.” The result is that even a progressive movement animated by calls for generational change, once again finds itself rallying behind an ageing incumbent. ■